Mamdani is just the beginning

The demographics of the electorate are at a tipping point

The mainstream press is full of stories about how Zohran Mamdani winning the primary to be the Democratic Party candidate for Mayor of New York City is evidence of the craziness of Democrats. I say it should be considered a wake-up call for every American over the age of 50.

Much has been made of the fact that Mamdani is a Muslim, a socialist, and that he speaks of what is happening in Gaza as a “genocide.” Though older Americans may see him as a wide-eyed radical, his views align quite well with a surprising number of American young people. That is first important story here: that younger generations are far more radical than most older Americans realize.

The second, even more important story, is one of changing demographics. The Baby Boomers have ruled US politics for 40 years. That era is coming to an end.

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Here’s the generational breakdown of the American voting-age population as of 2024:

15 million Silent Generation (Born before 1946)

67 million Baby Boomers (1946-1964)

65 million Generation X (1965-1980)

74 million Millennials (1981-1996)

47 million Gen Z over the age of 18 (1997-2012)

Taken together their are 82 million Boomers and Silent Generation. Their numbers will decrease by roughly 2 million per year as they gradually die off.

Taken together there are 121 million Millennials and Gen Z. Roughly 3 million new members of Gen Z get added each year as they turn 18.

By the 2026 elections we can expect to be down to 78 million Boomer/Silent Gen of voting age versus 127 million Millennial/Gen Z of voting age. (I suspect Gen X will split roughly 50/50 - with richer and older X-ers voting with the Boomers, and younger and poorer X-ers voting with younger generations.)

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Until recently, a few factors upped the clout of older generations enough to keep them in charge. Older generations register to vote more often, vote more often, and have more money to donate to their preferred candidate.

I think Mamdani’s win is evidence that an important tipping point has been reached. Younger voters now make up such a large and growing proportion of the electorate that their chosen candidate can win despite younger generations being less politically active.

I expect, in the 2026 midterms, we will see a whole lot more Mamdanis - young, charismatic, and shockingly radical. If a significant number of those candidates win, we should expect to see even more in 2028.

The poorer 50% of America owns only 2% of America’s wealth. The richer 50% of America owns 98% of America’s wealth. The poorer half of America is disproportionately young. The richer half of America is disproportionately old.

Bobby Dylan said it well: “When you got nothin’, you got nothin’ to lose” Which makes younger generations far less afraid of radical change.

Here’s my short list of the changes I see likely with this demographic sea-change. None of it will happen tomorrow, or even next year. Some of what is coming may be softened if America begins addressing its fiscal crisis rather than continuing to ignore it:

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‘No’ to War

The gerontocracy in Washington has been sending young American men and women off to die in foreign wars for a very long time. A great many young Americans voted for Donald Trump precisely because he promised to stop doing that. (Boy, did they get burned!) ‘No’ to war would also be ‘no’ to a trillion-dollar budget for the military.

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‘Yes’ to Taxes

Young people are keenly aware that technology, robotics, and AI are creating immense amounts of wealth for billionaires, and nothing for them.

I think it’s a good assumption that younger voters will want to see wealth taxes, higher corporate taxes, and higher taxes on the rich. (Socialism really only becomes popular when capitalism is doing a crappy job of meeting ordinary people’s needs.)

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A Debt Jubilee

Historically, when countries get as deeply in debt as the US is now, it is common for some sort of Debt Jubilee to take place. It wouldn’t surprise me if Millennials and Gen Z begin pushing for changes in the Bankruptcy Act that make all debts disappear when a person declares bankruptcy. Perhaps a Gen Z singer will update Dylan for the 21st Century: “When you’ve got less-than-nothing, you’ve got less-than-nothing to lose.”

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A Banking Crash

Even a limited debt jubilee would have consequences. Lots of banks might go under - even some big banks. Again, if you your bank balance is typically in overdraft, that’s not a big issue for you.

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A Stock Market Crash

If the younger generation’s newly-elected political representatives were to rain on the parade of today’s casino capitalists, it would be fair to expect a stock market collapse. But if your generation doesn’t own stocks, why would you care?

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A Housing Crash

Something like half of all Millennials own their own home. For the other half - and the large majority of Gen Z - home ownership seems like an impossible dream.

If all of the economic mayhem listed above were to happen, a housing crash would surely follow. If a housing crash were to knock US housing prices back to one-quarter of what they are now, pretty much anyone with a full-time job could think about buying a home.

Such a crash would really only take nominal house prices back to what they were 30 years ago, before rampant speculation drove prices way out of reach.

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Default on the National Debt

I somewhat doubt younger generations will actually do this last one, but I’m absolutely sure they are going to want to.

For the past 30 years, the octogenarians who run the United States have borrowed roughly a trillion dollars per year from future generations.

If I were a Millennial, or a member of Gen Z, I’d feel mightily ripped off, knowing my personal share of the US National debt is now $100,000 and climbing, and that the US Government is now paying out roughly $300 per month on my behalf in interest, month after month forever.

It’s like the Boomers and the Silent Generation had this massive party and stuck you with their bar bill. If I were a member of a younger generation, I’d be saying: “Screw that, I’m not paying.”

Yes, if the United States were to default on its debt, every pension fund in America would instantly be bankrupt, including Social Security. A slew of banks would go under. But if you don’t own any bonds, don’t trust that Social Security will still exist when you reach age 65, and you have nothing in the bank anyway, why should you care?

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It’s possible than Mamdani’s win was a one-off, that the real demographic power shift in America is still a few years off. That said, the math is inexorable.

If the prospect of young people transforming US politics scares you, be aware that’s not the worst outcome. The worst outcome is that they give up on politics entirely and take to the streets instead.

I am not saying that young people will actively try to crash the system. Simply demanding a halt to the relentless borrowing from the future that underpins today’s faux prosperity will be sufficient to create a massive economic crisis.

The longer America waits to address its out-of-control debt addiction, the harder the landing will be. If newly-elected young politicians cause America to face that reality sooner, it will be to America’s long-term benefit.