This is very good! My hope is that Xi prevails over his military and sticks with economic warfare and giving arms to proxy countries like Pakistan and Iran rather than forced reunification with Taiwan. Putin was unsuccessful at reunification with Ukraine, I doubt if China can realistically do it with Taiwan. It’s logistically way harder than Ukraine and the USA and other allies would have more time to react and coordinate a defense.
I have to suspect that the people of Taiwan have been watching what has happened to America's proxies in recent years.
Almost half of Ukraine's population has left, with a million or more war dead, hopelessly in debt, infrastructure in ruins, and they lose more territory every week.
Israel has also seen several hundred thousand Israelis leave, the economy is in a shambles, and information about the very significant property damage that occurred during the Twelve-day War is slowly leaking out. And the war with Iran could re-start any day.
Who in their right mind would want to be America's next proxy?
Right, who in their right mind???? I think the whole idea of proxies for the US is hopefully becoming more and more irrelevant because of the factors that you mention. But I was really talking about Pakistan and Iran as being "proxies" of China because China is arming them. They probably are not proxies in the sense that Israel is for sure. And I would not call Ukraine a proxy just because we give them a fair amount of military support. Sure we want a free Ukraine to counter Putin and keep NATO strong but it's not a classic cold war style proxy.
The US is flailing about like a drowning man as it descends further into mediocrity. Over indebted, weak manufacturing base , inept and expensive over extended military. Grasping at straws like sanctions, stable coins to keep their economy afloat. A dying empire
Slowing the flow of illegal immigrants is a win for Trump. (Even if you think America needs more immigrants, it's way easier to have quality control over legal immigrants than illegal ones.)
The tariffs could be an important tool to re-shore manufacturing. But trying to do it too fast - and changing from week to week - creates so much economic uncertainty it will likely create a global recession - which the US will not escape.
On the debt, he's caught between a rock and a hard place. Rein in spending hard and a recession is guaranteed. Continue to spend trillions you don't have - which Trump is doing - and the eventual reckoning will just get worse and worse the longer you kick the can down the road.
America has two big oceans between it and any potential enemy. Staying out of wars half-way around the world should have been a no-brainer. It's what he said he would do. But even that appears to be beyond Mr. Trump's abilities.
Where does the “unprovoked attack on Iran” come from! Since when does Iran sending hundreds of ballistic missiles and thousand of drones plus relentless funding of attacks become “unprovoked”?
Bruce, you are seriously misinformed and wrong in your timing, the missiles in June were not the first major attack on Israel from Iran. Iran has impoverished itself to the tune of perhaps 100 billion dollars to help those “independent actors” out of the goodness of their heart. Although admittedly part of the monies also went to support Assad killing his own people, funding attempts to overthrow the Jordan king, and support for all of the “independent” militias in Iraq. Serious, you are defending Iran as an innocent? Even they don’t pretend they are innocent, they proudly declare that they are trying to destroy Israel and the US (Europe is just road kill on the way).
Did you not notice that the missiles and drones came AFTER Israel murdered not just Iranian Generals and scientists but their whole families in their sleep, and killed hundreds of civilians in repeated waves of bombing?
If you are referring to the attacks by the Houthis and Hezbollah, both groups are independent actors. They probably are able to do more because of Iranian support than they would do without it, but it is fiction to think they are controlled by Iran. It's not as though Israel and America don't use their own thugs to have influence. The Al Queda terrorist now in charge of Syria wouldn't have gotten to where he is without American and Israeli support.
Parsing through the comments I just can’t but notice how supposedly new media start to look very much like old media. The post tries and I believe succeeds in analyzing and explaining a recent perceived shift in China’s policies. It does not take sides nor promote one or another type of government and society. Still, a lot if not the majority of comments quickly moves into “us vs. them” territory shifting the whole discussion onto binary black or white arguments, totally disconnected from the starting point. I’m not saying we cannot take sides or prefer this type of government over that type but why does every comments section have to get into the opposing binary shouting chamber?
Thank you. I do try to see both sides. And I believe it is essential to try to understand how other countries may see reality very differently than how we see it.
It is dangerous for America to be as polarized as it now is. Part of the problem is that the two halves of America operate on very different fact bases. Old style media, which tried to stay objective, and presented a broad variety of viewpoints, was much better at creating social cohesion than does media that is so heavily slanted either Democrat or Republican.
One of the reasons America ostensibly intervened in the India/Pakistan military conflict earlier in the year was because Indian missiles were alleged to have hit air bases where Pakistani F-16s were housed.
I am waiting for the day that American policymakers know how to cooperate with everyone because, with our current strength, that is still possible. To continue with the alternative will only bring catastrophe.
China doesn't build bases because it has no allies, and its only options for military alliances are global pariahs like Iran and Russia. And even the promised "eternal friendship" has clear and obvious limits.
China has signalled repeatedly to Iran not to attempt closing the straight of Hormuz. China isn't going to risk domestic oil shortages for houthi ambitions.
China has been unwilling to back Russia against Ukraine where the US isn't an active participant in the fighting.
Why would China suddenly decide to back a now-degraded and brittle Iran against Israel where the US is an active participant in the fighting?
You're accurately describing the China that was. I'm not sure you're describing the China that's on the way. War is never logical. But it is the favourite option of the military - who may now be in charge.
PS: It's probably not about Iran itself. I can practically hear the Chinese generals complaining vociferously (in Chinese, of course): "We'll NEVER be able to build a potent anti-American alliance if America supports its allies to the max and we abandon ours!"
I'll agree that "friends" is too positive a word. If you'll notice the context, I said China - and Xi - want to win an economic war with the US. For Xi, avoiding a military confrontation with the US was part of that larger strategy. Based on that, China has built few overseas bases, made no overt military alliances, and been relatively restrained in selling Chinese weapons systems overseas. That MAY now be changing, and it MAY be because Chinese war-hawks are now longer willing for China to keep a low profile.
From China's viewpoint, the US is using Israel as a proxy to attack a major Chinese ally in the Middle East, with the end goal of regime change. (How close to reality this is, is up for debate - what matters is that that's how China sees it.) Iran sells China a ton of cheap oil, has made many investments there and Iran is key to China's Belt and Road transport network.
The risk is that China will decide to back Iran to the hilt in a full-on proxy war with Israel/America. That would definitely be new behaviour for China. It would also considerably increase the risk of the world stumbling into WW3.
As the aggressor country (originally made up of a people’s looking for something better than what they had, and people who wanted more) can you see how those bent on strategy and defence, of that which is “theirs” have been quick to label “others” as the aggressors, fearful, as they are of losing it. This thread runs to the very foundations of what “white America” is?
Do you not see that this “military escalation” that you are discussing will simply result in military conflict? It is the American mindset: guns, missiles, bombs, conflict, bully the world, support the troops. When is humanity ever going to grow up and stop fighting with their neighbors? That is the promise BRICS, not continuous warring.
I very much DO see that military conflict is the risk here, that's why I wrote the damn post in the first place. I would not be surprised if Bibi is unable to resist the urge to attack Iran a second time, and that, if he does so, it could get very ugly, very fast, with a greater-than-zero chance that any expanded war could end up going nuclear.
If Trump continues to try to bully everyone - China, Iran, Russia, Brazil, Japan, BRICS, - he just increases the odds of any ensuing conflict spinning out of control.
Trump also has the power to rein in Bibi - he just needs to use it. (Remove the THAADS, and the American warships, and stop the flow of American weapons, and Bibi will immediately cease his delusional imagining he could win a second round with Iran.)
Though Trump clearly thinks of himself as a great peacemaker, he hasn't yet hoisted in that de-escalation is the peacemaker's most important tool.
In the “unprovoked attack” category I’m wondering how you explain Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis? Are these independent freedom fighters in the Middle East resisting the Israeli/USA colonial project in the region? How do the Lebanese people view Hezbollah? Iran’s per capita GDP is a fifth of the Gulf States. Was restoring JCPOA and giving sanctions relief to Iran by the Biden administration a positive turn for the Iranian population providing much needed relief from the negative effects of punishing sanctions? Why hasn’t Iran provided any humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians including provisions for refugees? They host many Afghan refugees but not Palestinians even though they provide material support in the hundreds of millions to Hamas. Xi missed the latest iteration of the BRICS gathering in Brazil. Taking a much needed break? How’s the weather in Victoria these days? Looking forward to the Chinese built B.C. ferries?
There's a reason that there are many Afghan refugees in Iran. The two countries have a very long border. You can literally walk from one to the other in 5 minutes. By contrast, Palestine is ~600 miles away across two intervening and not terribly stable or safe countries and large tracts of difficult terrain.
If you would like an explanation for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis there are many useful sources, but the groups have little in common and have arisen from their own distinct history and crcumstances.
As for how Lebanese people view any group - that depends on the person, what religion, ethnic group, socio-economic class they belong to, their individual and family history, circumstances etc. Just as for any other human on the planet - opinions will vary. You might be surprised to find that not everyone from wherever it is you come from will agree with you. Shocking, isn't it?
Very fair statement on geography and likely not the best example but nobody in the region takes in the Palestinians. The conflict is just too convenient and lucrative to let go of. The groups you speak of have the one thing that binds the whole project together - envy, grievance, and hatred.
I’m wondering how you would react in their circumstances. It’s easy to sit in our safe, democratic, relatively prosperous places where the people in charge are voted in by, if not us, our peers, and where we can campaign for change and express our views without facing too much risk of harm. But if you lived in a volatile, unsafe, wildly unequal place where the people in charge may not be chosen at all, and where trying to agitate for change will likely get you and your family killed, what would you do?
Join with others to form an organisation that had muscle - which would mean weapons in those places - so that you could influence things, and be safer while doing it? You would be competing with other such groups, and in the end the one that had the most support, or the most muscle, would dominate.
So given your argument, which on the surface appears rational; how do you explain the Iranian regime bleeding its population of prosperity when sanctions are lifted to funnel oil revenues into these proxies and non-civilian uranium enrichment? They believe these groups to be revolutionary actors emancipating citizens to take part in stable societies? They are chaos agents for a reason. Do you have any idea how the Houthis treat ordinary Yemenis? How Hezbollah grinds the Lebanese society into a husk of nothingness? The GDP of Iranians is a quarter of the Gulf States. The people of Persia are orders of magnitude more sophisticated than the historical tribes of the Gulf. This disparity is criminal and not born of some altruism. These groups are meant to destabilize the region. They are the handmaids of Iran, which, without material support, would have far less influence. These organizations with “muscle” as you define have lead their populations to destruction. There isn’t a more obvious example than Hamas. Freedom fighters……fuck out of here. The supposed utopia that would somehow exist in the region is a fantasy.
I invited you to put yourself in a situation which is very different from ours, to imagine what pressures there are that might explain why such groups arise. I do this not to excuse, nor to judge, but in the hope it might to some small extent, explain. To understand why you need to explore the many and varied influences, forces, histories and ideologies that exist there and how these arose. it's easy, and lazy, to dismiss people as being evil or greedy - as if we don't have our own share of such people! Why have they taken control and why do they operate the way they do? I am not here to convince you or justify anything, but if you want to understand, you need to look at it from multiple perspectives, not just a simple, black&white and polarised filter.
I have spent a decade in the Middle East and now twelve in Asia. Living outside my comfort zone and understanding the other has been the majority of my adult life. Two things can be true at once; the foreign policy of the West is less than perfect and we fail to understand the motivations of people in other cultures and make bad decisions based on that AND 2) there are very bad actors with ideologies so antithetical and destabilizing to the global order that they require intervention. The naive notion that the world would have or will become some utopian haven by natural order is absurd. Conflict is our default setting for humanity - from the smallest tribes to the most complex civilizations this adage is true. The ability to avoid war and conflict is an unending goal. When I think of movements that further the aims of humanity my bias runs towards Gandhi and MLK, not Iranian terror proxies. It’s not hard to decipher good aims from bad. There are hundreds of millions of people in the two regions I’ve lived in that know the difference between freedom and authoritarianism, their governments do not.
Did it ever occur to you from the moment of birth those Chinese students know at the cellular level not to criticize their government? It’s in their DNA. There is a strange thing that occurs when Westerner’s dip their toes into cultures that have shiny new things around -lots of new buildings and the veneer of prosperity - but haven’t spent enough time to actually live in the culture, to really peel back the onion of life. Life can be entirely tenable in these places, they look good, seem orderly, and a feeling of peace but they are not free and many issues lurk under the surface. Do you think it’s for shits and giggles that the CCP United Front operates in Canada to intimidate pro-democracy Chinese citizens?
Of course there is huge wealth disparity in the USA and increasingly in Canada. The entire West is struggling to grow their economies. This blanket assumption that we should toss it all out and look to China as a model is delusional. We need reform in the West, no doubt, but the system is legions above China and the Middle East and the massive polarization we are facing is being amplified quite readily by these bad actors.
Did it ever occur to you that from the moment of your birth you were propagandized to believe that you lived in the world's greatest democracy?
Never mind that housing gets more and more expensive. Never mind that you need to buy groceries on a Buy Now, Pay Later plan. Never mind that your credit card balance gets a little higher each month: you live in the world's greatest democracy!
I lived in Belfast back when it was a war zone. I know fear when I see it. My students in China were not fearful. I was there. I saw it, first hand. They truly believed their Government was doing wonderful things. Accuse them of being delusional if you want: they were not fearful. (They sometimes spoke of things their Government was doing that they didn't like - which you seem to think they would be terrified to do.)
Yes, there's a whole shitload of propaganda going down in the world. I have no doubt the Chinese are constantly being propagandized. But, if you don't see that you, too, are being constantly propagandized, you become a willing pawn of the billionaires that run America.
For someone who believes so deeply in propaganda you are utterly blind to the fact that every Chinese citizen is scarred by Mao’s legacy and silently traumatized by Tiananmen. Six months is not enough time to access that. It takes a full two years in a culture before the blinders come off and the honeymoon is over. Do I think I’m free from propaganda? Not in the least. Of course we are programmed and deceived all the time and it gets worse. But here’s the reality; the West is not perfect but is the least bad among a lot of very bad. Having been ten years in the Middle East and twelve years in Asia how much do you think Canada’s propaganda reaches me? How much does it affect me when my whole life is surrounded by people who grew up differently. I stick up for the West because it’s superior and we’ve done a terrible job of safeguarding our values. There is no moral argument to suggest the Iranian mullahs are a rational bunch and neither is the CCP. Economic malaise is not the same injustice experienced in these places. People have allowed some very bad idea to supplant Western values during these bad economic times.
There is are very legitimate reasons it’s only crocodile tears. I see you haven’t addressed my questions regarding Iran’s influence in the region and their complete ignorance and tyranny over the Persians. If you think 95% of the world sees the USA as the aggressor, you spend too much of your time online. That’s not suggesting the West’s foreign policy in the Middle East hasn’t been dire but your statement is unequivocally false. Allowing China into the WTO as a developing nation on Dec 11, 2001 was one of the biggest foreign policy blunders the West has ever made. The consequences are unfolding now. Think long and hard which side is the better actor to prevail. A world ruled by China, Russia, and Iran is not one you will want your ancestors participating in.
A non-western world would be far superior for most countries, despite your adoration of its “ values”. The west has been responsible for a long list of wars, genocides, massacres and all kinds of brutal power plays; the USA particularly has been waging continuous wars for well over 100 years. The world view of the west just closes its eyes to the sheer brutality and racism of colonialism, is convinced that we “know better” about how other countries should be forced to act and makes up stories about how bad those countries are to justify this. Small wonder that the live-streamed genocide in Gaza is causing irrevocable changes to global power relations, it just cannot be ignored.
Did I say it was a good thing if China wins? It would be good if America stopped working so hard at creating new enemies, and driving countries like Brazil into China's arms. The more isolated America becomes, the more likely China will triumph.
What is true is that large parts of the general population in both the Arab and Muslim world are becoming rabidly anti-American because of America's tacit support for the slaughter happening in Gaza. That may also come back to haunt America at some point in the future, particularly if one of the current look-the-other-way Governments is overthrown.
The Arab/Muslim world knows how to control their populations and they do it very well by the way. You will not find a street protest anywhere in the Gulf States regarding Gaza. It’s not tolerated. They also know how toxic radical Islam is to the whole region and deal with it harshly. They see the West as naive fools with the way we allow Islamists to infiltrate Western culture. They have always done the death to America trope…..this is nothing new and the current conflict in Gaza changes nothing except for a possible chance at sane leadership in Gaza for a change. These governments do token things and talk out of both sides of their mouth to keep their populations placated - condemn, send money, let in a few Palestinians but not many they are too radical. We have been arrogant fools about how this part of the world operates. That goes for China as well. These people do not think or value the same things we do. Honesty, integrity, justice are foreign concepts but they know full well we believe in them and have weaponized them to great advantage.
I lived in China for six months, teaching English. It was almost twenty years ago, but I suspect the essentials have changed very little. Even then, China's middle class was huge, and prosperous.
My students sincerely believed, rightly or wrongly, that they had more ability to influence their Government than Americans could influence theirs. (Real, inflation-adjusted income in China was increasing by 10% per year in China in those days, while it was, at best, falling only slightly behind inflation in America.) Who can blame them for thinking they had a great Government?
Has it ever occurred to you that your view of China has been carefully orchestrated by the ultra-rich who now control completely the mainstream media of the West? The truth is that technology has created immense amounts of wealth in the past 50 years, and that almost all of that wealth has gone to America's uber-rich. That's why so many ordinary Americans are having trouble making even the minimum payments on their credit card balances, and food banks are a growth industry.
China makes real stuff. A hell of a lot more than America makes. That's their ace-in-the-hole going forward. And you're quite right, despite Mr Trump's attempts to blame the rest of the world for 'taking advantage' of America in trade deals, it was American politicians that sold America down the river, several decades ago.
Reversing that, despite Mr. Trump's delusional optimism, will be a long, slow, and painful process - albeit a worthy goal.
Long time resident of the Middle East and Asia with hometown roots in Victoria tells me this is the 180 of what is actually occurring. How much time have you spent on the ground in the Gulf States, the Levant, East Asia?
I haven't. It's not as though Iran has many actual friends in the Middle East, but many countries see it as a necessary counterweight to rein in Israel. As for the Arab States, their support for the Palestinians is limited to crocodile tears...
China is the issue here. If they decide to match America's military support of Israel, that's when everything gets dicey....
If you look at the American media, Israel is engaged in self-defense in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. In the remaining 95% of the world Israel is seen as the aggressor - and engaging in war crimes. It is easier to understand the behaviour of other nations if we see the world through their eyes. Most of the world sees the US as the bad guys here. Whether their viewpoint is right or wrong is moot if it is what guides their behaviour.
It's one long war against China. The USA dominates in satellites, and I wonder if that will continue. I've written of the possibility this moment is like the bay of pigs with the neocons wanting to keep dominance in space.
Though the economic war with China will likely end badly for the US, it is a better outcome than a hot war - where half of America's carriers could get sunk in the first day, and America would run short of munitions in three weeks, having sent so much of its stocks to Ukraine and Israel. Best hope that the war-phobic Xi wins out over the war hawks in his army. Sattelites will have very little impact on the outcome of the war. -unless they;ve hidden weapons in them they're not supposed to...
This is very good! My hope is that Xi prevails over his military and sticks with economic warfare and giving arms to proxy countries like Pakistan and Iran rather than forced reunification with Taiwan. Putin was unsuccessful at reunification with Ukraine, I doubt if China can realistically do it with Taiwan. It’s logistically way harder than Ukraine and the USA and other allies would have more time to react and coordinate a defense.
I have to suspect that the people of Taiwan have been watching what has happened to America's proxies in recent years.
Almost half of Ukraine's population has left, with a million or more war dead, hopelessly in debt, infrastructure in ruins, and they lose more territory every week.
Israel has also seen several hundred thousand Israelis leave, the economy is in a shambles, and information about the very significant property damage that occurred during the Twelve-day War is slowly leaking out. And the war with Iran could re-start any day.
Who in their right mind would want to be America's next proxy?
Right, who in their right mind???? I think the whole idea of proxies for the US is hopefully becoming more and more irrelevant because of the factors that you mention. But I was really talking about Pakistan and Iran as being "proxies" of China because China is arming them. They probably are not proxies in the sense that Israel is for sure. And I would not call Ukraine a proxy just because we give them a fair amount of military support. Sure we want a free Ukraine to counter Putin and keep NATO strong but it's not a classic cold war style proxy.
The US is flailing about like a drowning man as it descends further into mediocrity. Over indebted, weak manufacturing base , inept and expensive over extended military. Grasping at straws like sanctions, stable coins to keep their economy afloat. A dying empire
To give Donald Trump credit, he inherited a mess.
Slowing the flow of illegal immigrants is a win for Trump. (Even if you think America needs more immigrants, it's way easier to have quality control over legal immigrants than illegal ones.)
The tariffs could be an important tool to re-shore manufacturing. But trying to do it too fast - and changing from week to week - creates so much economic uncertainty it will likely create a global recession - which the US will not escape.
On the debt, he's caught between a rock and a hard place. Rein in spending hard and a recession is guaranteed. Continue to spend trillions you don't have - which Trump is doing - and the eventual reckoning will just get worse and worse the longer you kick the can down the road.
America has two big oceans between it and any potential enemy. Staying out of wars half-way around the world should have been a no-brainer. It's what he said he would do. But even that appears to be beyond Mr. Trump's abilities.
Where does the “unprovoked attack on Iran” come from! Since when does Iran sending hundreds of ballistic missiles and thousand of drones plus relentless funding of attacks become “unprovoked”?
Bruce, you are seriously misinformed and wrong in your timing, the missiles in June were not the first major attack on Israel from Iran. Iran has impoverished itself to the tune of perhaps 100 billion dollars to help those “independent actors” out of the goodness of their heart. Although admittedly part of the monies also went to support Assad killing his own people, funding attempts to overthrow the Jordan king, and support for all of the “independent” militias in Iraq. Serious, you are defending Iran as an innocent? Even they don’t pretend they are innocent, they proudly declare that they are trying to destroy Israel and the US (Europe is just road kill on the way).
Did you not notice that the missiles and drones came AFTER Israel murdered not just Iranian Generals and scientists but their whole families in their sleep, and killed hundreds of civilians in repeated waves of bombing?
If you are referring to the attacks by the Houthis and Hezbollah, both groups are independent actors. They probably are able to do more because of Iranian support than they would do without it, but it is fiction to think they are controlled by Iran. It's not as though Israel and America don't use their own thugs to have influence. The Al Queda terrorist now in charge of Syria wouldn't have gotten to where he is without American and Israeli support.
Parsing through the comments I just can’t but notice how supposedly new media start to look very much like old media. The post tries and I believe succeeds in analyzing and explaining a recent perceived shift in China’s policies. It does not take sides nor promote one or another type of government and society. Still, a lot if not the majority of comments quickly moves into “us vs. them” territory shifting the whole discussion onto binary black or white arguments, totally disconnected from the starting point. I’m not saying we cannot take sides or prefer this type of government over that type but why does every comments section have to get into the opposing binary shouting chamber?
Thank you. I do try to see both sides. And I believe it is essential to try to understand how other countries may see reality very differently than how we see it.
It is dangerous for America to be as polarized as it now is. Part of the problem is that the two halves of America operate on very different fact bases. Old style media, which tried to stay objective, and presented a broad variety of viewpoints, was much better at creating social cohesion than does media that is so heavily slanted either Democrat or Republican.
“The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian” approximately 2005.
One of the reasons America ostensibly intervened in the India/Pakistan military conflict earlier in the year was because Indian missiles were alleged to have hit air bases where Pakistani F-16s were housed.
Make of that what you will.
I am waiting for the day that American policymakers know how to cooperate with everyone because, with our current strength, that is still possible. To continue with the alternative will only bring catastrophe.
China doesn't build bases because it has no allies, and its only options for military alliances are global pariahs like Iran and Russia. And even the promised "eternal friendship" has clear and obvious limits.
China has signalled repeatedly to Iran not to attempt closing the straight of Hormuz. China isn't going to risk domestic oil shortages for houthi ambitions.
China has been unwilling to back Russia against Ukraine where the US isn't an active participant in the fighting.
Why would China suddenly decide to back a now-degraded and brittle Iran against Israel where the US is an active participant in the fighting?
I just don't see the logic behind it.
You're accurately describing the China that was. I'm not sure you're describing the China that's on the way. War is never logical. But it is the favourite option of the military - who may now be in charge.
PS: It's probably not about Iran itself. I can practically hear the Chinese generals complaining vociferously (in Chinese, of course): "We'll NEVER be able to build a potent anti-American alliance if America supports its allies to the max and we abandon ours!"
"Xi has always wanted to stay friends with the West."
No, he hasn't. This kind of CCP simping is absurdist
I'll agree that "friends" is too positive a word. If you'll notice the context, I said China - and Xi - want to win an economic war with the US. For Xi, avoiding a military confrontation with the US was part of that larger strategy. Based on that, China has built few overseas bases, made no overt military alliances, and been relatively restrained in selling Chinese weapons systems overseas. That MAY now be changing, and it MAY be because Chinese war-hawks are now longer willing for China to keep a low profile.
From China's viewpoint, the US is using Israel as a proxy to attack a major Chinese ally in the Middle East, with the end goal of regime change. (How close to reality this is, is up for debate - what matters is that that's how China sees it.) Iran sells China a ton of cheap oil, has made many investments there and Iran is key to China's Belt and Road transport network.
The risk is that China will decide to back Iran to the hilt in a full-on proxy war with Israel/America. That would definitely be new behaviour for China. It would also considerably increase the risk of the world stumbling into WW3.
As the aggressor country (originally made up of a people’s looking for something better than what they had, and people who wanted more) can you see how those bent on strategy and defence, of that which is “theirs” have been quick to label “others” as the aggressors, fearful, as they are of losing it. This thread runs to the very foundations of what “white America” is?
Empire is as empire does.
Empire.
Have you been watching Foundation?
No. Why?
Do you not see that this “military escalation” that you are discussing will simply result in military conflict? It is the American mindset: guns, missiles, bombs, conflict, bully the world, support the troops. When is humanity ever going to grow up and stop fighting with their neighbors? That is the promise BRICS, not continuous warring.
I very much DO see that military conflict is the risk here, that's why I wrote the damn post in the first place. I would not be surprised if Bibi is unable to resist the urge to attack Iran a second time, and that, if he does so, it could get very ugly, very fast, with a greater-than-zero chance that any expanded war could end up going nuclear.
If Trump continues to try to bully everyone - China, Iran, Russia, Brazil, Japan, BRICS, - he just increases the odds of any ensuing conflict spinning out of control.
Trump also has the power to rein in Bibi - he just needs to use it. (Remove the THAADS, and the American warships, and stop the flow of American weapons, and Bibi will immediately cease his delusional imagining he could win a second round with Iran.)
Though Trump clearly thinks of himself as a great peacemaker, he hasn't yet hoisted in that de-escalation is the peacemaker's most important tool.
So true that last sentence.✌️
In the “unprovoked attack” category I’m wondering how you explain Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis? Are these independent freedom fighters in the Middle East resisting the Israeli/USA colonial project in the region? How do the Lebanese people view Hezbollah? Iran’s per capita GDP is a fifth of the Gulf States. Was restoring JCPOA and giving sanctions relief to Iran by the Biden administration a positive turn for the Iranian population providing much needed relief from the negative effects of punishing sanctions? Why hasn’t Iran provided any humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians including provisions for refugees? They host many Afghan refugees but not Palestinians even though they provide material support in the hundreds of millions to Hamas. Xi missed the latest iteration of the BRICS gathering in Brazil. Taking a much needed break? How’s the weather in Victoria these days? Looking forward to the Chinese built B.C. ferries?
There's a reason that there are many Afghan refugees in Iran. The two countries have a very long border. You can literally walk from one to the other in 5 minutes. By contrast, Palestine is ~600 miles away across two intervening and not terribly stable or safe countries and large tracts of difficult terrain.
If you would like an explanation for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis there are many useful sources, but the groups have little in common and have arisen from their own distinct history and crcumstances.
As for how Lebanese people view any group - that depends on the person, what religion, ethnic group, socio-economic class they belong to, their individual and family history, circumstances etc. Just as for any other human on the planet - opinions will vary. You might be surprised to find that not everyone from wherever it is you come from will agree with you. Shocking, isn't it?
Very fair statement on geography and likely not the best example but nobody in the region takes in the Palestinians. The conflict is just too convenient and lucrative to let go of. The groups you speak of have the one thing that binds the whole project together - envy, grievance, and hatred.
I’m wondering how you would react in their circumstances. It’s easy to sit in our safe, democratic, relatively prosperous places where the people in charge are voted in by, if not us, our peers, and where we can campaign for change and express our views without facing too much risk of harm. But if you lived in a volatile, unsafe, wildly unequal place where the people in charge may not be chosen at all, and where trying to agitate for change will likely get you and your family killed, what would you do?
Join with others to form an organisation that had muscle - which would mean weapons in those places - so that you could influence things, and be safer while doing it? You would be competing with other such groups, and in the end the one that had the most support, or the most muscle, would dominate.
So given your argument, which on the surface appears rational; how do you explain the Iranian regime bleeding its population of prosperity when sanctions are lifted to funnel oil revenues into these proxies and non-civilian uranium enrichment? They believe these groups to be revolutionary actors emancipating citizens to take part in stable societies? They are chaos agents for a reason. Do you have any idea how the Houthis treat ordinary Yemenis? How Hezbollah grinds the Lebanese society into a husk of nothingness? The GDP of Iranians is a quarter of the Gulf States. The people of Persia are orders of magnitude more sophisticated than the historical tribes of the Gulf. This disparity is criminal and not born of some altruism. These groups are meant to destabilize the region. They are the handmaids of Iran, which, without material support, would have far less influence. These organizations with “muscle” as you define have lead their populations to destruction. There isn’t a more obvious example than Hamas. Freedom fighters……fuck out of here. The supposed utopia that would somehow exist in the region is a fantasy.
I invited you to put yourself in a situation which is very different from ours, to imagine what pressures there are that might explain why such groups arise. I do this not to excuse, nor to judge, but in the hope it might to some small extent, explain. To understand why you need to explore the many and varied influences, forces, histories and ideologies that exist there and how these arose. it's easy, and lazy, to dismiss people as being evil or greedy - as if we don't have our own share of such people! Why have they taken control and why do they operate the way they do? I am not here to convince you or justify anything, but if you want to understand, you need to look at it from multiple perspectives, not just a simple, black&white and polarised filter.
I have spent a decade in the Middle East and now twelve in Asia. Living outside my comfort zone and understanding the other has been the majority of my adult life. Two things can be true at once; the foreign policy of the West is less than perfect and we fail to understand the motivations of people in other cultures and make bad decisions based on that AND 2) there are very bad actors with ideologies so antithetical and destabilizing to the global order that they require intervention. The naive notion that the world would have or will become some utopian haven by natural order is absurd. Conflict is our default setting for humanity - from the smallest tribes to the most complex civilizations this adage is true. The ability to avoid war and conflict is an unending goal. When I think of movements that further the aims of humanity my bias runs towards Gandhi and MLK, not Iranian terror proxies. It’s not hard to decipher good aims from bad. There are hundreds of millions of people in the two regions I’ve lived in that know the difference between freedom and authoritarianism, their governments do not.
Did it ever occur to you from the moment of birth those Chinese students know at the cellular level not to criticize their government? It’s in their DNA. There is a strange thing that occurs when Westerner’s dip their toes into cultures that have shiny new things around -lots of new buildings and the veneer of prosperity - but haven’t spent enough time to actually live in the culture, to really peel back the onion of life. Life can be entirely tenable in these places, they look good, seem orderly, and a feeling of peace but they are not free and many issues lurk under the surface. Do you think it’s for shits and giggles that the CCP United Front operates in Canada to intimidate pro-democracy Chinese citizens?
Of course there is huge wealth disparity in the USA and increasingly in Canada. The entire West is struggling to grow their economies. This blanket assumption that we should toss it all out and look to China as a model is delusional. We need reform in the West, no doubt, but the system is legions above China and the Middle East and the massive polarization we are facing is being amplified quite readily by these bad actors.
Did it ever occur to you that from the moment of your birth you were propagandized to believe that you lived in the world's greatest democracy?
Never mind that housing gets more and more expensive. Never mind that you need to buy groceries on a Buy Now, Pay Later plan. Never mind that your credit card balance gets a little higher each month: you live in the world's greatest democracy!
I lived in Belfast back when it was a war zone. I know fear when I see it. My students in China were not fearful. I was there. I saw it, first hand. They truly believed their Government was doing wonderful things. Accuse them of being delusional if you want: they were not fearful. (They sometimes spoke of things their Government was doing that they didn't like - which you seem to think they would be terrified to do.)
Yes, there's a whole shitload of propaganda going down in the world. I have no doubt the Chinese are constantly being propagandized. But, if you don't see that you, too, are being constantly propagandized, you become a willing pawn of the billionaires that run America.
For someone who believes so deeply in propaganda you are utterly blind to the fact that every Chinese citizen is scarred by Mao’s legacy and silently traumatized by Tiananmen. Six months is not enough time to access that. It takes a full two years in a culture before the blinders come off and the honeymoon is over. Do I think I’m free from propaganda? Not in the least. Of course we are programmed and deceived all the time and it gets worse. But here’s the reality; the West is not perfect but is the least bad among a lot of very bad. Having been ten years in the Middle East and twelve years in Asia how much do you think Canada’s propaganda reaches me? How much does it affect me when my whole life is surrounded by people who grew up differently. I stick up for the West because it’s superior and we’ve done a terrible job of safeguarding our values. There is no moral argument to suggest the Iranian mullahs are a rational bunch and neither is the CCP. Economic malaise is not the same injustice experienced in these places. People have allowed some very bad idea to supplant Western values during these bad economic times.
There is are very legitimate reasons it’s only crocodile tears. I see you haven’t addressed my questions regarding Iran’s influence in the region and their complete ignorance and tyranny over the Persians. If you think 95% of the world sees the USA as the aggressor, you spend too much of your time online. That’s not suggesting the West’s foreign policy in the Middle East hasn’t been dire but your statement is unequivocally false. Allowing China into the WTO as a developing nation on Dec 11, 2001 was one of the biggest foreign policy blunders the West has ever made. The consequences are unfolding now. Think long and hard which side is the better actor to prevail. A world ruled by China, Russia, and Iran is not one you will want your ancestors participating in.
A non-western world would be far superior for most countries, despite your adoration of its “ values”. The west has been responsible for a long list of wars, genocides, massacres and all kinds of brutal power plays; the USA particularly has been waging continuous wars for well over 100 years. The world view of the west just closes its eyes to the sheer brutality and racism of colonialism, is convinced that we “know better” about how other countries should be forced to act and makes up stories about how bad those countries are to justify this. Small wonder that the live-streamed genocide in Gaza is causing irrevocable changes to global power relations, it just cannot be ignored.
What does that even mean? A non-Western world? Ffs
Did I say it was a good thing if China wins? It would be good if America stopped working so hard at creating new enemies, and driving countries like Brazil into China's arms. The more isolated America becomes, the more likely China will triumph.
What is true is that large parts of the general population in both the Arab and Muslim world are becoming rabidly anti-American because of America's tacit support for the slaughter happening in Gaza. That may also come back to haunt America at some point in the future, particularly if one of the current look-the-other-way Governments is overthrown.
The Arab/Muslim world knows how to control their populations and they do it very well by the way. You will not find a street protest anywhere in the Gulf States regarding Gaza. It’s not tolerated. They also know how toxic radical Islam is to the whole region and deal with it harshly. They see the West as naive fools with the way we allow Islamists to infiltrate Western culture. They have always done the death to America trope…..this is nothing new and the current conflict in Gaza changes nothing except for a possible chance at sane leadership in Gaza for a change. These governments do token things and talk out of both sides of their mouth to keep their populations placated - condemn, send money, let in a few Palestinians but not many they are too radical. We have been arrogant fools about how this part of the world operates. That goes for China as well. These people do not think or value the same things we do. Honesty, integrity, justice are foreign concepts but they know full well we believe in them and have weaponized them to great advantage.
I lived in China for six months, teaching English. It was almost twenty years ago, but I suspect the essentials have changed very little. Even then, China's middle class was huge, and prosperous.
My students sincerely believed, rightly or wrongly, that they had more ability to influence their Government than Americans could influence theirs. (Real, inflation-adjusted income in China was increasing by 10% per year in China in those days, while it was, at best, falling only slightly behind inflation in America.) Who can blame them for thinking they had a great Government?
Has it ever occurred to you that your view of China has been carefully orchestrated by the ultra-rich who now control completely the mainstream media of the West? The truth is that technology has created immense amounts of wealth in the past 50 years, and that almost all of that wealth has gone to America's uber-rich. That's why so many ordinary Americans are having trouble making even the minimum payments on their credit card balances, and food banks are a growth industry.
China makes real stuff. A hell of a lot more than America makes. That's their ace-in-the-hole going forward. And you're quite right, despite Mr Trump's attempts to blame the rest of the world for 'taking advantage' of America in trade deals, it was American politicians that sold America down the river, several decades ago.
Reversing that, despite Mr. Trump's delusional optimism, will be a long, slow, and painful process - albeit a worthy goal.
Long time resident of the Middle East and Asia with hometown roots in Victoria tells me this is the 180 of what is actually occurring. How much time have you spent on the ground in the Gulf States, the Levant, East Asia?
I haven't. It's not as though Iran has many actual friends in the Middle East, but many countries see it as a necessary counterweight to rein in Israel. As for the Arab States, their support for the Palestinians is limited to crocodile tears...
China is the issue here. If they decide to match America's military support of Israel, that's when everything gets dicey....
If you look at the American media, Israel is engaged in self-defense in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. In the remaining 95% of the world Israel is seen as the aggressor - and engaging in war crimes. It is easier to understand the behaviour of other nations if we see the world through their eyes. Most of the world sees the US as the bad guys here. Whether their viewpoint is right or wrong is moot if it is what guides their behaviour.
It's one long war against China. The USA dominates in satellites, and I wonder if that will continue. I've written of the possibility this moment is like the bay of pigs with the neocons wanting to keep dominance in space.
Though the economic war with China will likely end badly for the US, it is a better outcome than a hot war - where half of America's carriers could get sunk in the first day, and America would run short of munitions in three weeks, having sent so much of its stocks to Ukraine and Israel. Best hope that the war-phobic Xi wins out over the war hawks in his army. Sattelites will have very little impact on the outcome of the war. -unless they;ve hidden weapons in them they're not supposed to...