World on Edge: Ukraine's U.S. Missile Strike on Russia Sparks Fear of Nuclear Showdown
Biden's Green Light for Long-Range Missiles Stirs Global Fear of World War III
Ukraine’s Strategic ATACMS Strike Fuels Nuclear Tensions as Russia Lowers Threshold for Nuclear Response
In a significant military escalation, Ukraine has deployed the US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike a Russian military installation in the Bryansk region, marking the first use of these long-range missiles on Russian territory.
The strike targeted a facility near Karachev, approximately 71 miles from the Ukrainian border, reportedly housing substantial stockpiles of munitions and matériel supplied by North Korea. This development follows President Joe Biden's recent authorization for Ukraine to utilize these missiles against Russian military targets.
The action has prompted a swift response from Moscow, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announcing changes to Russia's nuclear weapons doctrine. President Vladimir Putin’s revised policy now suggests that any use of non-nuclear Western rockets by Ukraine could provoke a nuclear response from Russia. From RT:
The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear arms and/or other weapons of mass destruction against itself and/or its allies, as well as in the event of an aggression against the Russian Federation and/or the Republic of Belarus as constituents of the Union State using conventional arms, if such an aggression creates a critical threat for their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity.
These changes were echoed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during an event at the G20 Summit, emphasizing that although Russia views nuclear weapons as a deterrent—similar to US policy—the threshold for their use has been lowered.
Market reactions to these geopolitical tensions were notable, with US equity futures and European equities experiencing declines. Global bonds rose as fears of an impending global conflict increased, with the US 10-year yield dropping to 4.34%. The dollar also surged in response to these developments. Prediction markets also showed increased speculation about the potential for nuclear detonation within 2024, reflecting growing concerns over the possibility of an expanded conflict.
What Are ATACMS Missiles?
The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is a surface-to-surface missile system used by the United States Army. Here are some key details about the system:
Purpose: The ATACMS is designed to provide long-range, precision fire support. It targets enemy air defenses, command and control centers, logistics sites, and other high-value targets.
Range: Depending on the variant, ATACMS missiles have a range of up to 300 kilometers (about 186 miles).
Guidance System: The missile uses inertial guidance combined with GPS for precise targeting.
Warhead: ATACMS can be equipped with different types of warheads, including unitary warheads for high-explosive impact and cluster munitions for area targets.
Launch Platform: The missile is launched from the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) or the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which are both mobile launch platforms.
Deployment: ATACMS has been deployed in various conflicts, including the Gulf War, Iraq War, and more recently in operations against ISIS.
Development and Variants: The system was first developed in the late 1980s, and several variants have been produced over the years to improve range, accuracy, and payload options.
The ATACMS provides commanders with a deadly tool for conducting deep-strike missions and disrupting enemy operations from a safe distance.
Ironically, the ATACMS attack is almost certainly not the move which is will lead to WW3.
Biden has also authorized and encouraged Ukraine to deploy US-made anti-personnel mines on the eastern front to stymie Russian troop advances. Although neither Russia nor the US are parties to the Ottawa Treaty, Ukraine is, and Biden is essentially asking Ukraine to violate its treaty obligations.
https://substack.com/@peternaylandkust/note/c-78027629
Given Russia's preference for human wave-style attacks, the use of anti-personnel mines is likely to greatly increase Russian casualties.
As Ukraine is being asked to violate an international arms treaty, this is could prove to be far more provactive than the use of ATACMS.
The specifics of this act are that the ATACAMS are too complicated to be operated by Ukrainian personnel. And the targeting information is also done by US personnel. Let's imagine that Russian military personnel fired a missile at Miami from Mexico using Russian targeting information. I'd say the odds are just about 100% the US would consider this to be an act of war. We should not be surprised if Russian comes to the same conclusion.