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As reported ealier today by Izvestia.iz, 5 missiles were shot down and one damaged by the Russian anti-aircraft defense. All is well then.

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Ironically, the ATACMS attack is almost certainly not the move which is will lead to WW3.

Biden has also authorized and encouraged Ukraine to deploy US-made anti-personnel mines on the eastern front to stymie Russian troop advances. Although neither Russia nor the US are parties to the Ottawa Treaty, Ukraine is, and Biden is essentially asking Ukraine to violate its treaty obligations.

https://substack.com/@peternaylandkust/note/c-78027629

Given Russia's preference for human wave-style attacks, the use of anti-personnel mines is likely to greatly increase Russian casualties.

As Ukraine is being asked to violate an international arms treaty, this is could prove to be far more provactive than the use of ATACMS.

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How long can Putin refrain from striking back at USNATO attacks without jopardizing his authority in front of the Russion people? That's based on the assumption Putin can strike back, militarily and politically. In any case, American missiles flying across the Russian airspace and hitting the Russian soil don't sound like good news for Ivan Ivanovitch.

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Putin probably does not need to strike back so much as he needs to rattle his nuclear saber just enough to keep NATO guessing about how far is "too far."

Ukraine attacked a weapons depot in Karachev, in the Bryansk Oblast. If you look at a map that's off in the western corner of the front recently opened up in the Kursk region. Not exactly in the strategic center.

ATACMS has the range to reach the far more strategically vital staging areas around Rostov-on-Don as well, and that would disrupt the supply lines for Russa's troops in eastern Ukraine.

In some respects Ukraine's first choice of ATACMS targets seems almost anticlimactic.

That complicates things for Putin. Not only does he have to respond to this latest escalation but he has to factor in what is likely to happen along the eastern front.

The challenge for NATO, of course, is the reality that every red line is a bluff....until it isn't.

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Dear Mr. Putin:

In two months, the funding will be cut off finally for Ukraine and Zelensky will have to negotiate with you. Many Americans know now that Obama initiated the war through his NATO line in the sand, because these neocons are traitors to America, and we are not doing it anymore. Just two more months.

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The specifics of this act are that the ATACAMS are too complicated to be operated by Ukrainian personnel. And the targeting information is also done by US personnel. Let's imagine that Russian military personnel fired a missile at Miami from Mexico using Russian targeting information. I'd say the odds are just about 100% the US would consider this to be an act of war. We should not be surprised if Russian comes to the same conclusion.

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It looks to me like old Joe has decided to go out with a bang, and take the rest of us with him, if he can. Such madness!

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